Manifold Markets

---

name: manifold

description: Read and trade on Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect users/bets, place bets/sell/comment). Never place a bet/sell/comment without explicit user confirmation.

homepage: https://manifold.markets

metadata:

{

"openclaw":

{

"emoji": "🔮",

"requires": { "bins": ["curl"], "env": ["MANIFOLD_API_KEY"] },

"primaryEnv": "MANIFOLD_API_KEY",

},

}

---

# Manifold Markets

Use this skill to read from Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect public user info) and to place trades/comments with explicit confirmation.

Write actions require `MANIFOLD_API_KEY` (in the environment or configured via OpenClaw skill entries).

Base URL: `https://api.manifold.markets/v0`

Docs: https://docs.manifold.markets/api

Read tasks

Search markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5"

Tip: replace spaces with `+` (or URL-encode). If you have `jq`, format results:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, createdTime, creatorUsername}'

List newest markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10"

With `jq`:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, closeTime}'

Get market details (by ID)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

Binary markets usually expose `probability` (0..1). Other market types may not have a single probability field.

Get market details (by slug)

The slug is the portion of the Manifold URL after the username (e.g. `.../Alice/my-market-slug` → `my-market-slug`).

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/MARKET_SLUG"

Inspect a user (by username)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"

List bets for a user

If you have `jq`:

USER_ID="$(curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME" | jq -r '.id')"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=$USER_ID&limit=50"

Without `jq`, fetch the user JSON and read the `id` field, then use it:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=USER_ID&limit=50"

Write safety rules

Write tasks

Authentication

Place a bet (binary market)

1. Fetch the market and confirm it’s the right one:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

2. Preview the exact payload you intend to send (do not run the POST until user confirms):

cat <<'JSON'
{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}
JSON

3. After explicit confirmation, place the bet:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bet" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}'

Notes:

Sell shares

Preview first (do not run until user confirms).

Sell all shares for an outcome (omit `shares` to sell all):

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES"}'

Sell a specific number of shares:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES","shares":10}'

Post a comment

Comments made through the API can incur a fee (see Manifold API docs). Always confirm text + target market.

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comment" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"contractId":"MARKET_ID","content":"Your comment here."}'

Notes